The global economic downturn hit the bottom in the first half of this year, and recovery can be expected at the year end while growth will be achieved throughout 2010, according to the main stream economics community.
Accordingly, both the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have revised up their growth forecast for the global economy in their latest reports.
The market is also showing signs of rebound, as some economic gauges of the major economies have taken turns for the better. Bolstered by sound fluidity, stock markets have risen, and commodity prices, such as those of crude oil and metal, have shot up.
Viewed only within the year 2010, the global economy without doubt has begun to bounce back and entered the right side of a V-shaped track. Recovery is the buzzword now, clearing the cloud that has been lingering for over a year since the outbreak of the financial crisis.
However, although a sense of optimism helps boost confidence, rationality and vigilance should prevail. A rebound does not necessarily bring sustained recovery, while the short-term momentum for recovery does not automatically translate into a medium-term upward trend.
The global economy still faces risks of a W-shaped recession, meaning it could hit another bottom before changing for the better. It remains to be answered whether global economic revival is on a sustainable track or is it just a new economic bubble taking the place of old one.
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the global economy has avoided a worse recession thanks to the prompt and effective monetary and fiscal stimulus measures taken by many governments. However, when the stimulus policies are due next year, they may not continue.
By then, the momentum for recovery depends on whether the already heavily indebted governments are capable of providing further stimulus and whether consumption and private-sector investment can provide enough momentum for the economy to respond positively.
Stimulus policies function as a cardiotonic, which is intended to help the heart function by itself, instead of replacing it. Likewise, it holds the key to sustained recovery whether internal impetus to growth can be inspired.
So far, the momentum for recovery is not coupled with a rise in employment. The jobless rate in both the United States and the euro zone were still close to 10 percent. Japan’s unemployment rate jumped to a six-year high of 5.4 percent in June.
Employment is a key factor that affects consumer confidence. A combination of high unemployment and sluggish consumption will form a vicious cycle that could lead to risks of a new economic downturn.
For the moment, the global economy is a mixed picture. Some of the economic indexes are turning for the better, while unemployment is still serious. Some of the large financial institutions have struggled out of the red, but banks’ toxic assets have not been resolved.
On the one hand, the stock market, the housing market and commodity prices have risen considerably. On the other, the real sector is not faring well. The interest rates have seen a bottom low while income did not grow correspondingly.
One of the lessons that should be learnt from the financial storm is that it may not be a good thing for companies or nations to make an excessive pursuit of profit or growth. If the growth is not established on a sustainable basis, it will subsequently lead to bubbles and increased risks.
If recovery is only seen in terms of GDP instead of being a result of dealing with the unanswered calls, it could turn out to be a new round of growing bubble.